Swoffers has had a very busy start to the year, averaging five Local Market sales a week since the middle of January.

Latest statistics from the States of Guernsey confirmed a drop off in the last quarter of 2023, when compared with the same period the previous year. In October to December last year there were 150 Local Market sales – 31 down on the same time in 2022 and 86 fewer than the same period five years earlier.

But, with 25% of those sales during Q4 under its belt Swoffers is optimistic for the year ahead.

‘These figures don’t come as a surprise; it’s what we were seeing on the ground last year. The market peaked in 2022, and then last year the spike in interest rates and a period of economic uncertainty was always going to make it challenging time for the property market. However, the Guernsey property market has always been incredibly resilient, and it’s important to remember property markets are cyclical,’ said local market negotiator Scott Ingrouille.

‘With a longer period of stability with interest rates, it’s been a very busy start to the year. On average, we’ve agreed five sales per week for the last few weeks, and have nearly 40 local market properties under offer, so we are encouraged by what we have seen so far.’

The average local market house price dropped in the last three months of 2023. The average purchase price was £609,362 – down 5.9% on the previous quarter and 4.5% down on the same period in 2022. However, prices remain 47.5% higher than five years previously.

The raw median (realty only) of Open Market transactions in Q4 of 2023 was £1,462,500.

Last year, Swoffers dominated Open Market sales, and was responsible for almost two thirds of all transactions. Open Market negotiator Alex Stuart explained with only a handful of Open Market sales going through across the island in the last quarter of 2023, the average price fell. This, he said, is why it’s important not to view quarterly figures in isolation.

‘Last year was challenging with the volume of sales well down from 2022, but that was always likely to be the case after the unprecedented post-covid years. Swoffers continued to dominate the market with 64% of open market sales,’ he said.

‘It’s been a steady start to the year, with a number of buyers coming over to the island on second and third visits. We are expecting to pick up momentum later in the year as we head towards the election.’

 

With interest rates rising at a rapid rate and the post-Covid boom seeming like a distant memory, 2023 was not looking like it would be a good year for the housing market in Guernsey. So, what actually happened? Swoffers negotiator Antonia Thomas takes a look.

As we entered 2023, the fastest rise in interest rates for more than 70 years – combined with a deepening cost of living crisis – significantly reduced people’s affordability, and certainly dampened confidence, threatening to derail the housing market.

But demand remained resilient and, breath held, the sales kept coming, albeit slower than in previous years. As we teetered further into Spring, it became clear that the volume of Local Market transactions was down on both the previous quarter and the same period in 2022. Whilst movement was sluggish, prices remained relatively stable, dipping only a few percent (down 4% from the previous quarter); a colleague succinctly described the inevitable adjustment in prices as more of a ‘parachute’ down painting a much more genteel picture of the situation.

Spring turned to summer (no one told the weather), King Charles became official, food price inflation finally started to fall, and Q2 figures showed that transaction levels were up (175 from 113), but the average house price fell for the second consecutive quarter, down from £613,942 to £600,836. Still no sign of that predicted derailment though, with prices still around 45% higher than they had been in 2018.

As the summer progressed, Guernsey’s attention turned to hosting the NatWest International Island Games, where our shooters, swimmers and runners did us proud, and the success of the games kept morale going through the August washout. September brought respite in the form of a gorgeous Indian summer and the welcome news that after 14 back-to-back rises, the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25%. Was this beginning of the comedown? The consensus was that rates had peaked.

The red herring release of the Q3 statistics in November indicated that house prices had incredulously gone up 7.8%; on closer inspection, a low number of transactions (138 – 37 fewer than the previous period) combined with a handful of high-value sales skewed the figures and this was not a true reflection of the whole market.

Regardless, there was – and continues to be – a sense of optimism that we have at least peaked on the interest rate front. Monetary policy in the UK will dictate a slow reduction in rates, and there is the further impact of recent global events to consider, but there are certainly green shoots in the mortgage market, maybe not yet above the ground.

Ultimately, the 2023 crash that Guernsey didn’t experience was underpinned by a shortage of property available, rather than any significant strengthening of buyer demand. However, we are taking comfort in the knowledge that rates have surely peaked, and that confidence is returning, and with it demand and stock levels too, completing a much more positive outlook for 2024.

 

There was a slight drop in the average purchase price of Local Market properties last quarter, but more properties were sold than during the first quarter of 2023.

The average purchase price for April to June was just under £601,000 – on a par with 2022 and 46.2% higher than the same period in 2018.

Latest figures from the States of Guernsey’s quarterly residential property price bulletin show that the mix adjusted average purchase price for the Local Market properties transacted during the second quarter of 2023 was £600,836, 2.1% lower than the previous quarter, 0.3% higher than the second quarter of 2022 and 46.2% higher than five years previously.

‘These figures reflect what we are seeing on the ground at Swoffers, so this slight fall does not come as a surprise. The increased cost of borrowing, general cost of living issues and shortage of stock have all contributed to the current situation,’ said Swoffers Director Andre Austin.

‘Our lengthy experience tells us that the property market sees these kinds of cycles, and doesn’t indicate any significant cause for concern.’

The mix adjusted price is a measure of the value of the properties sold during the quarter, not a reflection of the values of individual properties nor the change in the value of any one property over time.

There were 175 Local Market transactions during the second quarter of 2023, 62 more than the previous quarter, 61 fewer than the second quarter of 2022 and 8 fewer than the second quarter of 2018.

The raw median price (realty only) of the 20 Open Market transactions in the second quarter of 2023 was £1,633,125, compared with £1,366,843 in the second quarter of 2022. Of those 20 transactions, Swoffers was responsible for 10 of them at an average of £2,704,650 (realty only).

‘Guernsey continues to be an attractive relocation destination and our Open Market team continues to be busy,’ said Managing Director, Craig Whitman.

The cost of rental property continues to rise. The mix adjusted average rental price for Local Market properties was £1,864 per calendar month in the second quarter of 2023, 4.8% higher than the previous quarter, 2.6% higher than the second quarter of 2022 and 42.3% higher than five years previously.

Fewer transactions and a slight fall in the average price of local market property are highlighted in the latest quarterly residential property price bulletin from the States of Guernsey.

The average mix adjusted price of properties sold during the first quarter of 2023 was £613,942 – down 3.8% on the previous quarter and 7.1% higher than the first quarter of 2022.

There were 68 fewer local market transactions in January to March than in the previous period, and 86 fewer than the first quarter of 2022.

‘The figures don’t really come as much of a surprise. It’s well documented the market peaked last year and was always going to cool off,’ said Local Market director Andre Austin.

‘The good news is that there are still plenty of buyers around, the market has just become more price sensitive. We are also starting to see stock levels increase which is great news for buyers.’

The raw median price (realty only) of the 14 Open Market transactions in the first quarter of 2023 was £1,779,375, compared with £1,216,313 in the first quarter of 2022. Rental prices saw a slight increase – up 3.1% from the previous quarter and 7% higher than the same period in 2022. The mix adjusted average rental price for local market property now stands at £1,788 a month.

Andre added: ‘Stock levels on the rental market are still a real concern and this has not been helped by the decision by the States to increase document duty on second properties at the end of last year. The rental market needs buy-to-let investors and they are simply investing elsewhere. We hope the States will reconsider this policy.’

 

The quarterly residential property prices bulletin has been released and it makes interesting reading for both the Open and Local Market.

The average Local Market purchase price appears to be levelling out, with a slight fall of 0.6% in average prices (£550,893) compared to the previous quarter.  Such was the increase in average house prices over the previous 12 month, this still represents an increase of 11.7% compared to Q4 in 2020.

There is further evidence that the market may be starting to slow down with 30% fewer local market transactions taking place in in Q4 compared to the previous quarter, and 42% less transactions than the same period last year.

Andre Austin (Local Market Director) remarked “In truth we expected there to be a slowdown in transactions, especially year on year. The bounce back from the two periods of restrictions during the pandemic was record breaking and unlikely to be sustainable.  House buyers are facing new challenges with recent increases in interest rates and hikes in energy bills, all will undoubtably be a factor for those looking to purchase a new property”

However, Andre is keen to highlight that the market is still buoyant “we are still experiencing extremely high demand for properties and have a number of potential buyers waiting in the wings for the perfect property to come on the market. Figures show that sellers are getting sales much closer to their asking price than previous years and that’s something we have been experiencing with our vendors”.

This point is further backed up by the fact that time between properties appearing on the market and subsequently being sold continues to decrease, meaning buyers are having to be quick if they are to secure their next property.

The Open Market saw a total of 35 properties sold in Q4 for an average price of £1,584,375 which is a significant increase on the previous quarter (14.9%) and resulted in the average medium across the whole of 2021 being 12% higher than that of 2020.

Craig Whitman (Open Market Director) commented that “Guernsey is an increasingly attractive place for buyers looking to relocate to.  The unpredictable nature of the last two years has seen a sharp increase in interest from those looking to settle on the island and that trend looks set to continue in the New Year. As an agency we have continued to dominate in this space, with 50% of all Open Market sales being facilitated and executed by Swoffers in 2021”

To read the full bulletin click here

Local market house prices have risen by 19% year-on-year.

The latest Guernsey Residential Property Bulletin, for the third quarter of 2021, shows the mix adjusted average house price at the end of September was £554,290. It has to be noted that the mix adjusted price is a measure of the value of the sales during the quarter, not a reflection of the values of individual properties.

Compared with the previous quarter, the average price has risen by 9.6%.

‘Whilst these sound like big price increases, there are a number of factors that affect the mix adjusted average price. A number of high value transactions can skew the overall final figures somewhat. For example, last year there were around 35 Local Market sales over £1m and this year we are already over 60 and counting,’ said Local Market Director, Andre Austin.

‘It was widely anticipated these figures would be high because of the unprecedented level of demand and extremely low stock levels. We expect the last quarter to be a little quieter as we move into the winter, and going into 2022 we hope to see increased stock levels across all markets to satisfy demand.’

There were 285 Local Market transactions between July and September – 12 fewer than the previous quarter and 8 more than the same quarter of 2020. On the Open Market, there were 36 sales in the third quarter of 2021.  The raw median price (realty only) of those Open Market sales was £1.35m.

‘Demand remains high and we expect that to continue into next year. Guernsey is clearly becoming an increasingly attractive relocation destination,’ added Open Market Director, Shauna Clapham.

Properties sold more quickly in Q3 than in previous quarters. This has been a developing trend for the last few years.

‘It comes as no surprise to us to hear that the average time between a property becoming available for purchase and the time of its sale has been decreasing. The shortage of stock has meant that people have become much quicker at making their decision to buy, due to a fear of losing out to another buyer,’ said Mr Austin.

The mix adjusted average rental price for Local Market properties was £1,599 in the third quarter of 2021, 0.4% higher than the previous quarter and 16.2% higher than the third quarter of 2020.

In line with the latest www.gov.gg Public Health Advice our office is now closed until further notice.

We are all now working from home and will continue to provide as many of our services as possible and will continue to support all our clients to the best of our ability.

Our Office Hours are Monday to Friday 09.00 to 17.30 and Saturday 09.00 to 12.30

Clients should still call our office on our regular numbers – 711766 for Local and Open Market sales enquiries and 721757 for our rentals and property management teams or email sales@swoffers.co.uk and leave your name, number and any message.

We will be monitoring all messages and will return your call or email as quickly as we can.

Existing and new clients should feel reassured that the health and wellbeing of our community and our staff remains at the heart of everything that we do.

We thank you for your patience and understanding and will make any further necessary adjustments to ensure continuity of service during these challenging times.

We will continue to update you through our social media channels , emails and notices on our website.

Please follow Public Heath advice and stay safe. The Team at Swoffers #GuernseyTogether

While 2020 was one of the most difficult any of us will remember, the housing market in Guernsey thrived. Latest property sales figures show that just short of 100 open market properties were sold during the year, of which Swoffers sold 53%.

There were 1,017 local market houses sold in 2020, with Swoffers selling one in four.

‘After a cautious start, come May and June it just went crazy with huge numbers of viewings on individual properties and quite often people offering on the spot for fear of missing out. Every level of the market was busy,’ said local market director, Andre Austin.

On the open market, sales were even made unseen; while the business tunnels were in operation Swoffers did eight visits, of which six resulted in offers on the day.

‘It’s clear that Guernsey’s handling of the pandemic has further enhanced our reputation as a safe haven, and as soon as the current travel restrictions are eased we are optimistic about 2021,’ added Shauna Clapham, open market director.

‘While stock levels are challenging, tax advantages are clear. The safe, stable environment is a huge draw, and we expect the latter part of 2021 to be a bumper one.’

Click here to read our latest Open Market newsletter.

 

 

 

The recently published Q4 property prices bulletin confirms that 2019 was a busy year on both the local and open markets.

The total number of local market sales in 2019 was 845, 35 more than in 2018 and the highest annual total since 2007.

‘Swoffers had a record year in 2019 and that trend is continuing in 2020,’ said Scott Ingrouille, local market sales negotiator.

‘January and February have been extremely busy both with sales and new instructions and buyers need to be quick, as well-priced family properties are not hanging around long. The best thing to do is register with Swoffers and you will receive all the latest news and properties straight into your inbox.’

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the two-bedroom house category had the highest proportion (18%) of transactions. Three-bedroom bungalows were also popular, representing 15% of all sales.

‘In our experience there is still a big demand for larger family homes. We have a number of people looking for three and four bedroom properties but at the moment there is limited supply,’ said Scott.

The average sale price of a property is not necessarily a clear indication of the performance of the market, but the mix-adjusted average purchase price for local market properties was £441,295 in the fourth quarter of 2019, 3.5% higher than the previous quarter and 0.8% higher than the fourth quarter of 2018.

It’s been a solid start to the year on the open market too, with 10 sales in January, eight of which were sold by the Swoffers team.

You can read the full Guernsey Residential Property Prices Bulletin online

Local Market property sales in 2019 were the highest since 2007 according to the latest figures from Unusualities of Guernsey, an independent compiler of local conveyancing statistics.

Local market sales were up by 51% on 2015 – the height of the financial crisis. In total, there were 879 local market sales in 2019 – 34 more than in 2018, equating to an annual rise of more than 4%.

‘It has been a record year for our Local Market sales team,’ said Spencer Noyon, Swoffers director and local market negotiator.

‘The market picked up in 2018 and this has continued throughout the last 12 months. Every indication is that this level of activity will continue as long as we see a good supply of sensibly-priced properties coming to the market for sale.’

Within the open market, Swoffers negotiated the top ten most expensive individual sales in 2019 and already has a good number of sales due to complete in January. There were 71 open market sales in 2019 compared to 75 in 2018, and the proportion of high value properties sold was high. There were 25 Open Market sales over £1.5m of which 18 were over £2m, confirming renewed interest in relocating to Guernsey.

‘The turbulent political situation across the water in the UK has certainly influenced a number of new clients who have moved to the island in the past year,’ said Shauna Clapham, Swoffers director and open market negotiator.

‘Although Guernsey continues to be somewhat of a hidden secret, we have been continuing to target potential buyers and relocators through our innovative use of digital marketing and by joining delegates from Guernsey Finance on a recent We Are Guernsey marketing trip to Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.

‘We are optimistic for 2020 as we have sales in the pipeline and offers being considered. Guernsey’s stable tax regime and well-regulated, supportive business environment are important factors in the decision-making of relocators along with the island’s safety and security.’

Swoffers’ lettings and management team has also had a record-breaking year as the rentals market remains strong.

‘We have grown our property management and lettings team over the last year to cope with the increased level of demand and are proud to have the largest and most experienced team of property professionals to look after our clients’ needs,’ said Andy Biggins, Swoffers director and property manager.

‘The rentals market continues to be very busy with quality, well-priced properties being snapped up within 24 hours. Renting out property remains a sound investment and we expect 2020 to continue to be busy.’

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